Data Driven Visualisation

Data Driven Visualisation

Data Driven Visualisation

In my previous article, I referenced how the attempt at data driven betting excellence was one that hit the skids after an awful showing last weekend and although I will return to that project in the next few days, I felt it was time to highlight something else.

That being the topic of data driven visualisation and how it can help you make better informed decisions when placing bets, while also perhaps shining a different light on the data that you may be using.

For example lets take our trusted Over/Under 2.5 goals market and the data driven football predictions that have been made over the past few months – something you can also read about in more detail

I like most people work off of a probability basis and this means using the previous outcomes of the 2019/20 English Premier League and using those figures, in order to work out the probability percentage of a certain outcome.

That may tell one part of the story, but there is perhaps something else that we need to take into account and that is whether a team is hot or cold in front of goal, while we can do via the medium of data visualisation.

THE LAST SIX VS THE SIX BEFORE

When looking at form, the last six matches seems to be the industry standard and that is exactly what I am going to look at in terms of goals, not only that though I am going to be looking at the six before that.

In the image below – I’ve analysed the goals scored in the last six matches for each of the 20 Premier League clubs and then also done exactly the same for the half dozen they played before, allowing me to highlight who is in a goalscoring rut and who is in something of a purple patch.

Data Driven Visualisation

As you can see it is good reading for Aston Villa, Brighton, Burnley, Chelsea, Everton, Leicester, Watford and West Ham, as their goal tallies have increased over the last six Premier League matches.

While it is bad news for the rest, as their tallies have gone down – for the exception of Arsenal who continue their period of averageness, as there has been absolutely no change in the compatritive measures.

Of course, in some cases scoring less goals is not necessarily the crisis it may first be. Take Liverpool for example, they’ve dropped from 2.833 goals a game to 2.167 but no-one can accuse the Merseyside outfit of being in a rut.

So there has to be some form of relatively to this and the clubs that were already on a low base in terms of goals scored and have then seen their tallies decrease are the ones that we should be further worried about.

Take Bournemouth for example, they’ve dropped from a goal a game on average to 0.833 in the last six matches and although they have won their last two league outings at the time of writing, the drying up of goals will certainly be of concern to Eddie Howe.

Ultimately each of these 20 teams will tell their own story and although this is a very neat infograph, we do need some additional context and now we can link the above image to the probability data that is available

LINKED TO THE OVER/UNDER

Let’s take the four Premier League games that are coming up this weekend:

League Home Away Over 2.5 Over 2.5 Prediction
Premier League Everton Crystal Palace 38.00% Under 2.5
Premier League Brighton Watford 48.00% Under 2.5
Premier League Sheffield United Bournemouth 38.00% Under 2.5
Premier League Man City West Ham 66.00% Over 2.5

In this quartet, you can see that there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of goals on the horizon and even though we have four games on offer, the probability of Brighton and Watford finishing at Under 2.5 goals a game might be a little too close to call.

Therefore if we ignore that game and focus on the other three, I think it is fair to say that with Manchester City not only capable of scoring a boat load of goals but also actiing as the proverbial wounded animal after defeat to Tottenham, then the Over 2.5 picks looks almost a dead cert.

Especially when you couple City’s attacking prowess with West Ham propensity to gift goals to their opposition and if David Moyes cannot address the issues of the past few weeks, things have the potential to get very ugly at the Etihad.

WILL THE EAGLES BECOME STUCK AGAINST THE TOFFEES?

If we take the Everton vs Crystal Palace game, this is one that is pointing to Under 2.5 goals from a probability and when you consider that Roy Hodgson’s men have struggled in front of goal this season, you can begin to understand why.

Although if we look at Everton in the comparison chart above, they seem to be adjusting to life under Carlo Ancelotti with some ease and with an increase in goals scored, perhaps Under 2.5 might not be the order of the day.

While if we look at the Sheffield United vs Bournemouth game, this also has the same percentage probability of finishing with Under 2.5 goals and when you look at the Blades having averaged half a goal a game in their last six, you can begin to understand why.

Of course, this is before the aforementioned Bournemouth issues in front of goal, so in this instance using data visualisation has allowed us to back up the data that has been used in order to make a data driven football prediction.

Just like raw data is not the be and all, neither is data driven visualisation on its own. However, when you combine the two, it can make for a very useful partnership and especially if it helps you get the better of the bookmakers.

Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan

If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.

Follow me on Facebook at Dan The Stat Man
You can also check out my Premier League Podcast on Soundcloud


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