Cutting It Fine
In my previous article
it was once again to attempt data driven betting excellence and it was via the medium of trying to correctly predict the outcomes of the eight English Premier League matches that are taking place this weekend.
With that particular series of data driven football predictions struggling to get out of mid-table, it is time to return to the golden child and that is the Over/Under 2.5 Goals Premier League market, one which is coming in with a respectable two-thirds success rate.
After testing my ‘GoalBot’ across 67 matches, 45 of them have been correct and that has given me an overall success rate of 67.16%. Now with the scene set, it is time to look at what is on offer this weekend.
If you don’t know the drill by now (where have you been) but for any first time readers, I will break it down once again:
Green – Back Over 2.5
Orange – Ignore
Red – Back Under 2.5
This means of the eight matches taking place over the next few days (including Norwich vs Leicester
in about 45 minutes) seven have hit the necessary threshold to place a bet on this weekend.
The Green threshold needs to be 55% or more to be back at Over 2.5 and it is here that we might just have to approach a little bit of caution. Because as you can see none of the five in that band have cleared 60% probability.
Which means we really are cutting it fine as far games that are expected to be Over 2.5, if only because usually there are at least a couple of games that are closer to 65%, so this looks like the thinnest set of over probability in I think the duration of the project.
IT IS WHAT IT IS
That said, the data does not lie and if that is what it is telling us (regardless by how small a measure) then that is what we need to be doing this weekend. Although, if we are looking for concerns, maybe Everton vs Manchester United needs to be more pertinent.
That’s because this is a game that has been marked down as Under 2.5 goals, but the Toffess have certainly had a resurrection under Carlo Ancelotti
and therefore the ability to score more goals has been unlocked.
While of course, that is before we consider a resurgent Manchester United who put three of their own past Watford last Sunday. Therefore, although the data is saying one thing, the form going into this game says another.
There’s ultimately two things we can hope for here:
a) The two teams cancel each other out in a low scoring game
b) Manchester United’s Europa League exploits have an adverse effect on Sunday
NO MORE EXCUSES
Fundamentally the above has been a list of excuses where it could go wrong this weekend, but to be honest I need to be more confident in a process that is working on a two-thirds success rate and for that to continue, I’m going to need five out of seven matches to be correct this week.
If it is only four, that will take a big hit out of my overall success rate and anything lower than that will be nothing short of abject failure. Fingers crossed, we keep the momentum going although we may just be cutting it fine.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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