Back To The Drawing Board
Back To The Drawing Board
In my first article that was looking at predicting results for the English Premier League, I served up what was going to be a control set of predictions, which would act as the testing framework of all the future weeks that the project continues for.
First up lets take a look, at how the control measure actually worked:
The results were a very poor 3 out of 10, which on one hand is pretty rotten in terms of return but on the other hand it does mean that the only way is up and that is hopefully where we will go once the first raft of changes have been made.
Changes that mean that I’ve added extra emphasis on the teams playing home, something that I was intimating the last week and now I think it is time to pull the trigger.
How does this work?
Ultimately the code that reveals the prediction was too evenly balanced and this meant that home results were just as balanced as away results, something that we know is not correct because home advantage does present a huge boost in terms of aiming to deliver all three points.
Therefore I’ve given more credence to home wins and that means the margin of difference is less for a home win and more for an away win. Something that is arguably more reflective of how football matches actually play out
So with this fundamental change in mind, here is what the English cousin of ‘StatBot’ has thrown up for this weekend:
Looking at these picks, they are pretty much what I would go for. However, I don’t like the look of Bournemouth to win away at Watford and Arsenal to only draw at home to Crystal Palace. Perhaps I’m looking too much at form and/or my pre-conceived bias is getting the better of me.
The reasons I don’t like those picks in particular are:
- I feel Watford are due a win and after two draws, they will be confident it comes this weekend
- Arsenal are much stronger at home
Then again, I need to be taking the emotion out of my betting and not necessarily over analysing the picks at this point. We shall do that one the other side of the weekend, so until then….
Happy punting and thanks for reading, Dan.
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at dan@realfootballman.com. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.
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