A Week To Forget
A Week To Forget
If you read my previous article on trying to get the better of the Over 2.5 goals market, you will know that the English Premier League has provided something of a successful platform and with 19 out of 22 predictions correct, a data driven approach is one that has proved fruitful.
However, you are only as good as your last weekend and although I am running late in terms of reviewing the latest raft of results, it’s now time to have a look and see how I fared across week 17 of the Premier League season.
Before we do so, let’s remind ourselves of what ‘GoalBot’ spat out last Saturday:
SLIM PICKINGS AND SLIM REWARD
With only five games hitting the threshold of recommendations, there was admittedly not a lot to play for and unfortunately for me and for anyone who backed my tips last week, it can only be described as a huge bust.
That’s because of the four matches that were predicted to finish Over 2.5 goals, only one of them got over the line and that was thanks to Manchester City themselves. While this also meant that Saturday was a complete wipe out.
If Watford had bought just one shooting boot or if VAR was not its useful self at Anfield, there is every chance that the opening game of the weekend could have also got over the line. However, I’ve said many times before, there is no point looking back on the ifs and buts.
Therefore the winners enclosure was not open to accept all comers and although there was an element of licking my wounds after such a hiding, I can at least celebrate Crystal Palace and Brighton holding each other to a 1-1 draw.
Which meant that the recommendation of under 2.5 goals was another one that came good and of the five recommended bets, it was a grand total of two that were deemed a success – just a 40% hit rate for the week.
WHERE ARE WE AT OVERALL
This means that 27 games have now been selected as recommended Premier League bets in the past four gameweeks of those, 22 have been winning bets. Unfortunately though, after such a bad weekend the office, the overall win rate percentage has taken a hit.
After being at 86.3%, it has now fallen to 77.7% – that said, we shouldn’t be too hyper-critical as this means three out of every four recommendations are correct and if you were betting on single lines, this would definitely return a profit.
We do also need to be careful of the fact that to a certain degree, we are dealing with the law of small numbers and although more than three quarters success looks impressive, it will look even more after say 100 games.
Of course, the big money is in some form of combination and although there was little to write home about this time, I have something else up my sleeve, which if it works in a similar vein to this, may just be the seismic shift in operations that I’ve been looking for. All will be revealed tomorrow!
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.