A Family Feud
A Family Feud
In my previous article, I mentioned that the use of the predictive model ‘PremBot’ was going to undertake some competition, in order to see whether a data driven betting approach is one that we should be using.
While although that article focuses on the pure full-time outcome, I’ve once again asked my brother to offer up his gut instinct on the Over/Under 2.5 goals market and see whether or not he can outfox a predictive model with a 67.2% success rate for the season so far.
A BLIND DRAW
Again as previously referenced my brother, is not blind but he is a football fan – although it must be said not one that is steeped in a bedrock of analytics, therefore he is the perfect specimen to go up the might of ‘GoalBot’
With that in mind, here is what he thinks will happen across the course of the next few days:
Which means, if both Arsenal vs Everton picks are to come good, he would need at least a 2-2 draw at the Emirates, not necessarily outside the realms of possibility but perhaps proof that the outcome picks have not led the goal picks.
Crystal Palace Newcastle United – Under
Burnley Bournemouth – Under
Sheffield United Brighton – Over
Southampton Aston Villa – Under
Leicester Manchester City – Over
Manchester United Watford – Over
Wolverhampton Wanderers Norwich – Over
Arsenal Everton – Over
Liverpool West Ham – Over
Crystal Palace Newcastle United – A
Burnley Bournemouth – D
Sheffield United Brighton – H
Southampton Aston Villa – H
Leicester Manchester City – A
Manchester United Watford – H
Wolverhampton Wanderers Norwich – H
Arsenal Everton – D
Liverpool West Ham – H
More importantly, we need to see how these stack up against my goal picks – a fearsome list that looks as follows:
Amber – Ignore
Red – Back Under 2.5
The eight Green or Red matches, I’ll use for my ‘GoalBot’ series.
Happy punting and thanks for reading. Dan
If this has grabbed your interest and you would like to discuss/feedback then please feel free to drop me a message at firstname.lastname@example.org. While I am always looking for new football/data projects to work on and if you feel that my skills would be of use, I can be contacted at the same address.